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2009-02-05 16:10
注: 对研究中国特色国情下,技术的运营和发展具有很好的借鉴意义.
来源: http://labs.chinamobile.com/community/my_blog/660/12003
媒体发布了消息,小灵通要在3年之内让出可能对TD有干扰的20M频率。且不说这20M是当年预留给3G,而非新浪所说留给小灵通的,就小灵通的发 展历程和轨迹,我真希望大家能凑一凑,知情的提供一些材料和信息,让我们共同将小灵通这十多年走完的从生到死的轨迹画出来,至少能为未来提供良好的案例 吧。
1998年,“小灵通之父”徐福新在浙江余杭电信局首先推出无线市话业务。2000年6月,信产部下文确认小灵通的身份是“市话的延伸和补充”,暂时允许其使用预留3G频段的20M作为无线频率。后来,又陆续出台一些政策,将小灵通纳入电信管理的范围内,算是认可了小灵通的存在。
熟悉那段历史的人应该记得,从98年开始,对小灵通的讨论就一直进行着,其中的焦点有很多,突出的是以下几点:
合理性:正方认为,存在即合理;反方认为,小灵通的建设属于先斩后奏,不符合常规流程,不应予以认可。
技术先进性:正方(以UT为首)认为,小灵通可以满足基本通信要求,并且可以平滑升级,与其他国际标准在更高阶段实现融合;反方认为,小灵通属于过时产品,现在最多就是过渡,将来会被淘汰。
存在价值:正反认为,小灵通将平滑演进到3G,用户也可伴随系统升级;反方认为,PHS难以演进到未来,只能是阶段性产物,投资难以得到保护,用户的利益将来也会受损。
也许还有其他的争论,期待大家补充。正因为众说纷纭,所以当年信产部对小灵通的态度应该是“不鼓励不干涉”,而是否上小灵通的决定权在于当年的固网运营商,而非政府。
经历过移动公司成立之初的人应该还记得,最早政府对资费的管制是非常严格的,移动和联通不能轻易降价,资费要信产部批准,甚至信产部和电管局还 要组织检查组巡视调查运营商有无“违规降价”的行为,而这时对小灵通的管理却是网开一面的,原因很简单——小灵通不属于信产部批准的项目,因此不纳入管理 对象。在这种现在看来奇怪,当时却很正常的管制情况下,小灵通的“资费优势”当然很突出了,由于缺乏漫游等功能,因此即使是2000年信产部开始对小灵通 的资费进行管理时,批准的资费是每分钟0.20元,不得低于0.10元。这与移动电话每分钟0.40元的资费标准相比,自然差了一大截。所以说,小灵通能 发展起来,在很大程度上缘自当年政府对移动通信资费的管制政策。
再看固网运营商,听话的不上小灵通的,和其他地方相比,业务发展情况和业绩自然差了一大截;政府的态度又是“不干涉”,于是各地纷纷建设小灵 通,顺便火了UT。这个时候,小灵通的负面声音渐渐弱了,挺小灵通的人胸脯挺得老高,固网运营商依靠小灵通的发展给业绩增添了亮丽。但仍有人认为,小灵通 的辉煌并不能掩盖问题,小灵通未来的路并不好走,固网运营商在获得收益的同时,也为自己未来埋下了隐患。尽管这些观点扔出来就会遭到一大堆板砖的回应,但 是还有如阚凯力等还在直白、执着地坚持自己的观点。
后来的发展大家就很熟悉了,政府对资费的干预越来越少,移动电话开始降价,小灵通价格方面的优势越来越弱,虽然与小灵通有关的技术研发还在不断 演进,虽然在竞争策略上还有新的卖点,但不可否认的是,在移动用户总数快速攀升的时代,小灵通用户却在06年到达最高点之后呈现下滑的趋势。这个时候的运 营商心里都明白这个网络的结局。
小灵通从98年开始,根据政府规定要走到2011年;相比较而言,当年的模拟移动电话从87年开通,到2001年退网,也是十几年。记得当年模 拟退网,我们希望政府下文分担企业压力,但是未果。而今,退网本来是给小灵通的建设单位出的难题,但却有了充分的理由——政府要运营商退频率,而频率是让 给TD的,中国移动是获益者。轻轻松松,退网的责任和祸首自觉不自觉地转嫁给了政府甚至毫不相干的移动,我不得不佩服记者们手中的笔。移动财大气粗,被冤 枉惯了,再背上个黑锅和包袱也不算啥,对移动的敌视心态如此之大,把矛头指向他是最没有风险的作法。作为移动的员工,我不能再说啥,只是希望大家思考以下 这些问题:
回顾整个生命周期之后,我们来看,小灵通到底是不是正确的选择?
是谁决策了建设小灵通,政府还是运营商?决策的理由是什么?
小灵通是合理合法的网络么?
政府对小灵通的态度是一如既往,还是被逼无奈,还是朝令夕改?
小灵通使用的20M频段早就明确是3G频段,现在退出是否合理合法?
小灵通政策上打擦边球,频率临时占用频段,未来存在风险,这些情况运营商是否在用户入网前,如实告诉了用户?这里面是否存在欺诈?
是谁应该为小灵通用户的退网负责,是政府还是小灵通的运营商?
前事不忘后事之师,我不在固网运营商,无法了解小灵通的投资是否已经收回,这笔买卖到底是亏是赚。我觉得,如果是亏,就要总结经验教训,避免今 后犯类似的错误。如果是赚,那么就不要站着说话不腰疼,白天外面哭穷,晚上回家数钱。最后说一句,政府部门大可以挥着大棒,在法律许可范围之内,根据管理 办法,强令要求运营商年底前让出非法占用的频率资源;政府不这么做,正是对用户负责,给电信和联通空间的表现。 |
2009-01-12 22:03
http://mygogou.com/mm-652/
凯特·格林尼”无线传输媲美光纤速度“, 人们总是需求更快捷的无线传输技术,但目前传输速度最快的几种技术手段,如Wi-Fi(注2)、3G无线网络(注3),甚至即将出现的 WiMax(注4),其最大传输能力也不过每秒数十兆或数百兆比特。迄今为止,还没有一种商用无线传输系统的原始速度比光纤快,光纤每秒可传数十千兆比特 数据。
提高无线传输速度的一个方法是提高频谱中毫米波段的利用率,但产生这样的极高频信号,通常需要昂贵而复杂的设备。现在,美国俄亥俄州哥伦布市的一 家技术研发公司Battelle,发现了一个更简易的毫米波无线传输技术。今年初,Battelle公司的研发组对一个点对点毫米波无线传输系统原型进行 了现场实验,该系统可以通过相隔800米的天线每秒传输10.6千兆比特的数据。最近,Battelle研发组又在实验室示范了每秒传输20千兆比特数 据。
Battelle公司的高级研究员理查德·里奇韦(Richard Ridgway)说,这种技术能应用在校园内传输超大文件、灾后迅速建立紧急应变网络等方面,甚至可实现用一台计算机或机顶盒无线广播不经压缩的高清视频。
鉴于Wi-Fi和无线蜂窝网(即无线广播网络)的工作频率是2.4到5.0千兆赫,毫米波技术利用的频段位于60 到100千兆赫之间,这种电磁波振荡得更快,故而能传送更多数据。大部分毫米波的频段是不受管制的,可任意使用,只是因为生成毫米波信号,把信息调制其上 再在接受端进行解码,整个过程既困难又昂贵,毫米波技术才一直不受重视。产生毫米波信号的常用方法是,先生成10千兆赫左右的低频微波(厘米波),对信息 数据进行编码,再转换成频率较高的信号。这么做的缺点是,在10千兆赫左右电波上每秒只能携带大约1千兆比特的数据。
Battelle公司的研发人员用现有的光通信组件把毫米波传输能力提高了十倍。他们在两条低频激光束上调制数据,再加以合成,就形成一个干涉图样,相当于100千兆的信号。里奇韦说:“这好比我们有了一条频率达100千兆赫的激光束。”
前几年,美国乔治亚理工学院、麻省理工学院、英特尔公司等的研究人员在研发毫米波设备上已取得了很大进展。像英特尔这样的公司,甚至开始推行相关 标准,促进开发在60千兆赫频段可兼容的技术。Gigabeam公司(一家专门从事毫米波无线通讯的公司,成立于2004年,位于美国北卡罗来纳州达拉谟 市)推出的产品,在几百米间通过点对点连接,每秒能传输1千兆比特左右的数据。
里奇韦解释,利用激光通讯有两大优点。第一,激光功率大,产生的毫米波功率也较大;第二,现在的激光技术在工业应用中已很稳定可靠,与标准毫米波信号源相比,激光信号不会大幅振荡,因而抗干扰能力更强。
英特尔通讯技术实验室(the Communications Technology Lab at Intel)的主管艾伦·克劳奇(Alan Crouch)说,Battelle公司的成果进一步证明毫米波技术会日益重要。“无线快捷传输大量数据,这方面需要越来越多的解决方案,有广泛的行业应 用前景。”
不过,要把Battelle公司的研究成果应用到产品上也许仍需数年。里奇韦解释道,用毫米波传输数据首先需要精细的设备,但一般的无线传输系统 是由现有的组件装配而成的,体积过大。另外,毫米波数据传输数字信号利用到电磁波的偏振现象,即在波传播方向的垂直面产生的振动现象,比如,立体电影的原 理就是光的偏振现象。这种偏振波在长距离传输过程中容易发生相位漂移,也就是产生“噪音”。不过里奇韦希望,通过技术方面的改进能解决这些问题。他说:“ 我们想做到让这项技术付诸实用。”
注1:毫米波,millimeter-wave,波长从10毫米至1毫米、频率从30至300GHz的电磁波称为毫米波,是微波的一种,称为极高 频。利用 毫米波进行通信的方法叫毫米波通信。毫米波通信分毫米波波导通信和毫米波无线电通信两大类。毫米波通信的优点是:1、可用频带极宽。毫米波段频带宽度为 270GHz,为整个短波波段的一万倍;2、方向性强,保密性好;3、干扰很小,几乎不受大气干扰、宇宙干扰和工业干扰的影响,因而通信稳定。
注2:Wi-Fi,即无线保真技术,属于在办公室和家庭中使用的短距离无线技术。
注3:3G是英文3rd Generation的缩写,指第三代移动通信技术,能把无线通信与国际互联网等多媒体通信相结合,可处理图像、音乐、视频等多种形式,提供包括网页浏览、电话会议、电子商务等多种信息服务。
注4:WiMax,全名是“微波存取全球互通”Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access,又称为802·16“无线城域网”,是一种为企业和家庭用户提供“最后一英里”的宽带无线连接方案。因在数据通信领域覆盖范围大,达 25~30英里,而且成本较低,将扩大宽带无线应用范围,甚至可能对3G构成的威胁,使WiMAX在最近一段时间备受业界关注。
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2008-11-14 17:27
from Technology Review
FCC终于让Cognitive Network向实用化迈进了一大步,该方向也是近年来Wireless领域中和WSN、Network Coding等方向媲美的热门方向之一.我想,国内应该有科研单位在山寨"自主知识产权"的CogNet设备了吧.
If you believe some radio researchers and engineers, within the next couple of years, high-bandwidth, far-reaching wireless Internet signals will soon blanket the nation. Thanks to a decision by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) last week, megahertz frequency bands that were previously allocated to television broadcasters will be opened to other device manufacturers. The frequency liberation means that future wireless gadgets will be able to blast tens of megabits per second of data over hundreds of kilometers. They will cover previously unreachable parts of the country with Internet signals, enable faster Web browsing on mobile devices, and even make in-car Internet and car-to-car wireless communication more realistic.
The FCC announcement essentially lets wireless take advantage of unused frequencies in between channels used by broadcast television, so-called white spaces. "The announcement that the FCC will allow white-space devices has a lot of people feeling like this is a beginning of a wireless revolution," says Anant Sahai, a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the University of California, Berkeley.
For years, researchers have been toying with radios that are smart enough to hop from one frequency to another, leaving occupied channels undisturbed--an approach known as cognitive radio. But until the FCC made its announcement, cognitive-radio research was a purely academic pursuit. "You could do all the research you wanted on it," Sahai says, "but it was still illegal."
With the FCC decision, however, researchers and companies finally have the opportunity to turn prototypes into products, knowing that the gadgets could hit the market in the next couple of years. Companies including Motorola, Phillips, and Microsoft have all tested prototypes with mixed results and hope to have robust white-space devices soon.
Motorola is one of the first companies to have developed a white-space radio device that meets the basic requirements of the FCC. The device is smart enough to find and operate on free frequencies in its vicinity while controlling the strength of signals to keep them from interfering with those from other devices using nearby frequencies.
There are still lingering concerns over interference, however. This is one of the main reasons why white spaces have been off limits until now. Broadcast companies, which fund a huge lobby in Washington, were not keen on sharing their airwaves, and musicians were concerned that future white-space devices would interfere with performances using wireless microphones.
Motorola's radio finds occupied frequencies by accessing a database of registered television stations and wireless devices within its vicinity, which it determines by using GPS. Steve Sharkey, Motorola's policy director, notes that the device has a secondary way of finding free signals that involves just "listening" to the airwaves and scoping out free space. Sharkey believes that combining both methods will provide the best results.
Motorola's early tests show that there's still work to be done. During an FCC trial in October, Motorola's device, which is about the size of a suitcase and can currently only receive signals, was able to find some but not all of the allocated frequencies in its vicinity. "These aren't ready to go," admits Sharkey. "They are more developmental devices, and the idea of the test is to demonstrate the basic technologies and help the FCC understand all the interactions [between transmissions]."
While eventually it may be possible to shrink down a white-space radio to the size of a cell phone, Sharkey says that Motorola is more focused on bypassing wired Internet technology by providing broadband to rural areas and providing point-to-point wireless antennas.
Other companies are more reticent to talk about their white-space plans, but Jake Ward, spokesperson for the Wireless Innovation Alliance, a consortium of companies that helped convince the FCC to open up white spaces, says that these companies have a wide range of motives. For example, computer manufacturers such as Dell may want to build broadband wireless Internet cards that are faster and have more range than existing ones do. Software companies like Microsoft could be interested in building software and applications for new devices. And an Internet giant like Google may simply want to push Internet coverage to increase the number of people who see Google ads. "Each company has its own interests," Ward says, "but the underlying principle is that higher connectivity is better for everybody."
Ward describes one white-space application as "mind blowing": sending high-definition television signals from one room to another within a house. "You have a TiVo, a DVD player, a cable box, and three high-definition TVs," he says. "Using a white-space device, you could beam those signals anywhere, to any TV."
Of course, technical and policy challenges still remain. "Right now, a device capable of moving around to different frequencies at will is very expensive," notes UC Berkeley's Sahai. But he suspects that economies of scale will lead to affordable devices within the next couple of years. Additionally, he says, regulations need to be established to ensure that devices consistently avoid causing interference. Ultimately, however, Sahai sees no shortage of demand for the wireless spectrum. "If you build it better and faster and easy to deploy, then the applications will come," he says.
Copyright Technology Review 2008.
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2008-09-25 18:57
最近搜集了一些网络领域的国内外研究院的信息,都是位于北京的,以作为将来求职时的参考.
欧美
Microsoft(MSRA)
Nokia
Intel
IBM CRL
Lucent Bell
France-Telecom
日韩
DoCoMo
NEC
Panasonic
Samsung
SONY
Fujitsu
国内
联想
电信/移动/网通
普天
中科院计算所
中科院软件所
如果哪位看官是以上某家研究院里的技术大牛,欢迎您提供相关的职位信息给我(fangvv at gmail dot com),非常感谢! 我的主页是 http://sites.google.com/site/fangvv |
2008-08-26 20:51
除了众所周知的TD和CMMB以外,dailywireless介绍了京奥2008上使用的主要网络,包含一些无线网络设备的情况.
http://www.dailywireless.org/2008/08/06/2008-olympics/ |
2008-08-21 09:47
还是因为那个pheasant project的原因,现在回到学校了.
奥运会中留下很深印象的不是联想"来弄我"攒机商那个铺天盖地两句鸟语不伦不类的广告,而是数字跑道和数字跑鞋,后者采用了某种短距离无线传输技术,但是哪种不得而知.类似的科技辅助手段还有美国队流体物理学分析帮助美国游泳队在奥运会提高成绩
体育,医疗,煤炭,烟草,相信大多数无线应用团队都动过念头,其实谁都可以做,关键就是上面让谁做了.
现实生活中80%的工作是没有必要大推特推公式的,只需要按部就班的去做,每个人每个团队其实能力都差不多,关键点反而是人的因素.
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2008-05-24 13:10
来源: 博客@英特尔中国
http://blogs.intel.com/china/2008/05/post_37.php
投身科技,抗击天灾
作者 John Du (杜江凌), 2008年5月23日
在四川汶川发生的特大地震深深地震撼了每个人的心灵,而对于我,因为有亲属在四川,更有一种感同身受的焦急。每天我都利用各种渠道获取最近的救援进展,打电话、上网、看电视,恨不得能亲自到现场加入救援行动。
经过最初的焦虑,现在我终于平静了一些,并且也开始思考从自己的角色,如何能最大地发挥作用。除了贡献爱心,我还能做些什么?
首先我是一个研发人员,最能发挥作用的就是在科研工作方面。我以通信技术人员的视角,经过思考,从这场天灾中总结的技术问题有这样两个:
设备的移动性和通信性能会非常重要,而且会越来越重要。救援行动最初的问题就是信息不通,最初的信息就是军方的 移动式通信系统传递出来的。这方面要求我们考虑设备的耗电水平、体积、性能等综合性能。想象如果一般百姓有这样的设备:非常轻,电池续航时间很长,但功能 强大,还能自动识别和利用周围的设备和系统,很容易找到网络与外界联系,那样我们就可以在灾害发生的第一时间得到很多有用的信息。其实这样的技术离我们已 经不远了,我们有一个团队正在研究的主题“轻装上阵,畅享生活”就是这样一种技术。
另外一个问题就是设备的图形和视频处理功能,这可以说是上一个问题的延伸。之所以特别提出来,是因为我在看直播 的时候深刻体会到图像和视频信息的强大。相信很多网友也跟我一样在听记者从救援前线发来报道时,更希望看到,而不仅仅是听到。眼见为实!那些画面传达给人 们的信息更加震撼人心。这个研究题目,特别是移动设备上的图形和视频处理,也是我们一个团队的研究方向。
经过思考,我感到非常欣慰——当前在英特尔中国研究中心,我们的研究人员所从事的很大一部分研究工作,正是围绕着解决这些问题的。我们从事的研究工作,不仅是为了人们生活更加美好,也会在今后人类抗击天灾的行动中发挥关键作用。
Weiwei注:作为研究人员这样想是自然而然的,作为中国的研究人员这样想是不够的,? 1 2 技术不是决定一切的. |
2008-05-08 08:54
http://www.ofcom.org.uk/media/news/2008/05/nr_20080507
Tomorrow’s Wireless World: Ofcom report on future communications technology
New technology in cars to help avoid collisions; wireless devices to remind patients to take medication; wireless food content scanners to change the way we shop …these are just some of the new technologies that are highlighted in Ofcom’s 2008 technology research report published today.
Tomorrow’s Wireless World scans the horizon ten to twenty years in the future to discover potentially significant advances and new, innovative technologies which are being developed that could improve healthcare and transport provision.
Wireless devices are now an essential part of our everyday lives. As well as transport and healthcare, wireless communications are essential to defence, education, entertainment, culture and commerce. Wireless communications are so integral to our lives that today there are more mobile subscriptions, at 70 million, than the 60 million UK population.
Ofcom’s role is to ensure the most efficient use of the UK’s radio frequencies – or spectrum – that these services use. Spectrum is a finite resource; Ofcom’s technology research helps it to better understand how this precious resource might be used in the future and allows it to plan how we manage the spectrum to meet these demands.
New technology in the healthcare sector
The report highlights a number of innovative technologies in the healthcare sector which could be available for use within the next ten to twenty years:
- In-body networks : a “body area network” could be implanted inside a patient’s body to enable doctors to monitor their recovery remotely. The in-body network sensors monitor how a patient moves or picks up vital health signs, such as blood sugar levels, and sends this information wirelessly to make an alert via a home hub or portable monitor. A number of UK universities, including Imperial College, are carrying out research in this area. These networks could use existing spectrum specifically allocated for use by sensor networks.
- On-body monitors : these are small devices which people could wear to check vital health indicators such as pulse and blood pressure. These devices could be used to monitor chronic conditions, such as heart conditions, asthma or diabetes, to gauge movement or fitness levels. The device would use Bluetooth or other wireless technologies to send signals from the body to portable monitors, such as a watch or mobile phone, or a home hub. A community healthcare trial developing this technology is currently taking place in Portsmouth.
- Smart drug dispensing : intelligent pill boxes or bottles could sense whether they have been opened each day at the appropriate time. If they have not been opened they will sound an alarm or send a message to the patient’s home hub or portable monitor, reminding them to take their medication. If necessary, the patient's doctor can automatically be notified and then communicate with the chemist and inform them of a change in dosage. This technology could be particularly important for providing assisted living – such as older people in their own homes – and to help control chronic conditions which require regular treatment such as heart conditions, asthma or diabetes. Drug dispensers are currently available and research projects are taking place to add the necessary communications technology. They are likely to use existing technologies, such as Bluetooth or wireless local area networks.
Some of the technologies described above could be deployed for use within the next ten years.
- Wireless food content scanners to change the way we shop : portable nutritional content scanners could enable people to scan the content of food wrappers quickly and easily. Using existing Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags, like those on the reverse of many bar codes, they would help identify items suitable for dietary requirements. This technology could be particularly useful for people with food allergies – such as nut allergies – and diabetics. This technology already exists as a means of helping prevent shoplifting and is becoming more widely deployed for identifying and tracking valuable items in transit. A research project in Finland has already developed a mobile phone which incorporates an RFID nutritional scanner and this or similar technology could be on the market in the UK within the next five years.
New technology in the transport sector
The report also looks at new advances in communications systems to make travel faster, smarter and safer in the future :
- Intelligent transport systems : this technology allows cars to communicate wirelessly and seamlessly with each other to automatically alert a vehicle of sudden braking to help avoid collisions – some could even include automatic braking systems in the future. This technology is currently being developed by many of the major car manufacturers around the world and could be fitted to vehicles by 2015.
- e-Call automatic emergency call out : wireless in-car technology could be used to automatically alert the emergency services of an accident, enabling faster response times from ambulance and police, as well as on-site relay of images back to a hospital after an accident to assist diagnosis and speedy treatment whilst on-route. The European Commission is currently discussing whether to mandate this in-car technology which could be on the market by 2011.
- Congestion alerts and e-transport : road-to-vehicle and car-to-car communications technology which could alert drivers to traffic jams to help reduce road congestion. These systems could improve upon the speed, quality and acuracy of existing satellite navigation systems when informing drivers of jams. An additional function could give details of routes to avoid which could help those with sensitivities to smog, pollution or pollen. This is being pioneered in Japan, the US and parts of Europe.
- e-Transport systems : these could simplify travel and decrease journey times when travelling by bus, train or plane through one e-ticket which could be used on all modes of transport. While at home, in the office or on the move, a mobile phone or wireless device will provide real-time information including live and future timetable data and route information and allow you to make a booking.
As well as healthcare and transport, Ofcom’s report also highlights work on a range of other projects and wireless applications.
Peter Ingram, Ofcom’s Chief Technology Officer, said: “This report demonstrates the many creative ways the radio spectrum can be used for the benefit of UK citizens and consumers.”
Professor William Webb, Head of Research and Development at Ofcom, said: “Our lives continue to be transformed by developments in wireless technology. Ofcom’s research and development report highlights how a range of innovative new technologies could enhance transport and healthcare. It helps Ofcom plan for future spectrum use to benefit citizens and consumers”.
For the full report, see Related Items.
Ends.
NOTES FOR EDITORS
- The illustrations below demonstrate how this technology could enhance our everyday lives.
Illustrations Annex
In-body networks and wireless assisted living
Stephen has recently had a hip replacement operation. He lives some distance away from his family and is keen to remain independent and involved in his local community during his recovery period.
During the operation, an implanted sensor was fitted to Stephen’s hip and temporary monitors were attached to his knees. These sensors monitor his movements and transmit this information to his home hub, so that doctors are able to follow his recovery process.
Stephen’s house has been enabled for assisted living, allowing him to remain in contact with his family, as well as with doctors and carers, via a home hub in his living room. This allows Stephen to contact his family using video conferencing, enabling them to see, as well as hear, that he is feeling well. Stephen’s home has also been fitted with an automatic pill dispenser, which senses if the pill box has been opened at the correct time and if not, sends a signal to the home hub. An alarm then sounds to remind Stephen to take his medication. If Stephen ignores this alarm, his family or carer can be notified so that someone can stop by to check that he is ok.
Smart drug dispensing and on-body monitors
Jameela is mildly asthmatic and carries a smart inhaler with her at all times. She automatically gets reminders to the home hub and to her hand-held communicator about external factors (such as atmospheric conditions) that may exacerbate her asthma and advice on how to cope.
Jameela has also signed up for an anywhere / anytime service that allows her to meet other local asthmatics and provides general advice on managing her condition. She has access to a named care adviser and co-ordinator and could attend a clinic, either real or virtual, if she wanted to. The number of times she uses the inhaler is automatically monitored and she is contacted if it is above or below the norm.
Wireless food content scanners to change the way we shop
Tom has a nut allergy and has to be very careful with what he eats. In the past, this made food shopping quite time consuming, as he had to examine each food packet carefully to check that the product was free from all traces of nuts.
Tom now has a portable nutritional content scanner. This allows him to scan food wrappers, which have been fitted with Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology, to identify quickly and easily whether it contains nuts. If Tom is unsure whether a product is suitable for him, he can contact his doctor later, via his home hub, to ask their opinion.
Intelligent transport systems
John is driving his children to school when suddenly a cat runs out on to the road in front of his car. As he slams on the breaks, narrowly missing the cat, his car sends an automatic warning message to Emma, who is driving in the car behind him. This allows Emma enough time to brake quickly and avoid bumping into the back of John’s car.
John drops his children off at school and continues on to his office. His roadside-to-vehicle (RTV) communications device informs him of a traffic jam up ahead, and automatically suggests an alternative route for him to take. A little further down the road, John’s car receives a car-to-car message from a van up ahead of him, which warns him that a lorry has skidded and is blocking the road.
John asks his in-car navigation system to identify the quickest way for him to continue his journey. The navigation service suggests that he parks his car in the nearby station car park and continue his journey by train. John agrees, parks his car, and receives another message informing him that his parking permit and train ticket have been purchased and that a taxi has been booked to take him from the station to his office.
On the train, John is able to access his emails via an on-board high-speed wireless network. He receives a text message during his journey confirming that the train will arrive on time, so John is able to relax and arrives at the office feeling prepared for his morning meeting.
Automatic emergency call-out and smart diagnostics
Siân is driving to work one winter morning when she hits a wet patch of road and looses control of the car. She slips off the road and hits a nearby tree. On impact, her vehicle telematics system automatically calls the emergency services and an ambulance is immediately dispatched.
The lead ambulance paramedic, Clare, is carrying a small PDA (hand-held computer), which automatically picks up wireless messages from the medical bracelet incorporated in Siân’s watch. This enables Clare to access Siân’s home hub, which provides her with a basic medical history, including information about any serious illnesses, allergies or prescriptions. From this, Clare identifies that Siân is allergic to penicillin and is able to treat her accordingly.
Whilst Clare is attending to Siân’s broken leg, another paramedic Kevin, takes a video of the car, showing the position it is in so that the hospital will be able to easily identify the exact location of Siân’s injury. Kevin then speaks to the local hospital via video conferencing in the ambulance to ensure that there are beds available and to pass on information about Siân’s injury in advance, so that the hospital is prepared for her arrival.
e-Transport
Mark lives in a suburban area about 30 miles away from the main city and his journey into work involves three different modes of transport. He starts his journey by taking a bus from the end of his road to the train station a few miles away. From there, he gets a train into the city. As the right train only passes through Mark’s station every 20 minutes, it is important that he makes it to the station on time. Upon arrival, Mark gets the tube from the station to his office, which is only a short walk from the underground station.
As a result of new technology, Mark is now able to use one smart card electronic ticket (e-ticket), similar to the Oyster card currently available in London, on all public transport. This means that he no longer needs to fumble around in his bag to find the right ticket, or carry the exact change for the bus. As Mark is a regular traveller, he has a season ticket which saves him money and time waiting in queues at the station, but pre-pay e-tickets, where you top-up your account regularly, and post-pay e-tickets, where you are billed or pay by direct debit for the fare, are also available.
Mark’s e-ticket is integrated with his personal travel planner, a portable device which he carries with him when travelling. He has saved his route to work on this as one of his listed ‘favourites’. Whenever Mark uses his e-ticket to board the bus, this is recognised on his personal travel planner and the time and platform number for the next train going in to the city is sent to him as the bus approaches the mainline station. An alert is then sent to his personal travel planner, or mobile phone, to inform him of where he needs to go, ensuring that he is always at the right platform and knows exactly when the next train will be. |
2008-03-19 09:18
from: http://news.ccidnet.com/art/1032/20080318/1393569_1.html
注:转载,三个阶段加在一起就是 IPv6+移动+传感器网络,把“+”拿开,那就是一个方向,而且肯定是在做的一个探索性方向,意思也就是说“这个方向很重要”;而加上了“+”之后,分开看也是近些年“大力投资支持,深入开展研究”而又实际收效甚微的几个方向。
七层是TCP/IP网络,而两层则是对混合网络形态的一种综合描述,前者偏向于实际实现和控制,而后者更加偏向于宏观操作和运营,两者好像不能做直接对比吧。
上面是个人看法了。
下一代网络将为“两层”架构
| 发布时间:2008.03.18 10:26 来源:赛迪网-中国计算机报 作者:朱杰 刘喜喜 |
【赛迪网讯】网络已成为支撑现代社会经济发展、社会进步和科技创新的重要信息基础设施。目前,世界各国先后展开了下一代网络研究,那么,下一代网络究竟会是什么样的?进展情况又如何呢?
随 着超高速光通信、无线移动通信、高性能低成本计算和软件等技术的迅速发展,以及互联网创新应用的不断涌现,人们对网络的规模、功能和性能等方面的要求越来 越高。在不久前结束的YOCSEF(青年计算机科技论坛)上, 中国工程院院士刘韵洁、清华大学教授吴建平、北京交通大学电子信息工程学院院长张宏科对下一代网络的现状和发展进行了深入探讨。张宏科还展示了下一代网络 的研究成果,他认为,未来网络的体系架构将由现在的七层演进为两层。
研究的三个阶段
业内一直在关注网络的未来发展和演进。目前为止,对于下一代网络的研究,主要可以分为以下几个阶段。
第一阶段的网络研究大约发生在8年到10年前。当时全世界都在关注IPv6网络的研究。到目前为止,IPv6网络已经进入到产业推进、商用化全面展开的阶段。
第二阶段是2001~2002年左右,主要是移动互联网研究阶段。现在,这个阶段从研发角度来讲,也已经开始全面推进,逐步进入商用。
第三阶段是在2003年左右,新一代传感器网络开始受到关注,前两个阶段是完成人与人之间的通信,这个阶段要求新一代网络完成的是人与物之间、物与物之间的传感器网络连接。
以上三个阶段可以说是现在网络研究工作的基础和支撑。目前,全世界展开新一代网络研究,实际上是想研究出一个全新的网络模型,消除传统网络的不足。
回 顾原始网络的设计思想,基本上是一种网络服务于一种服务模式。比如说电信网最初就是为打电话而设计的,严格说这种网络主要是为了解决高速度数据传输问题, 对图像传输不是很适合。互联网最初是为数据业务设计的网络,它实际上不适合语音、图像等传输,虽然通过目前的互联网也可以进行一些语音和图像传输,但不高 效,而且存在可控、可管、安全性方面的缺陷。如果要用一个网络实现电信网和互联网的功能,就必须对目前的网络模型进行改变,做到真正的网络融合。
面临的三个问题
张宏科认为,新一代信息网络目前在研发过程中主要解决以下主要问题。
第 一,信息网络的体系结构问题。比如现在的七层网络、四层网络、三层网络,每一种网络针对某一种主要业务,这并不很科学。而且每一种网络工作原理和机制很多 东西很类似,但是搭建网络的效果却不一样。新一代网络要替代现有网络当然很难,只能多年磨剑,长期钻研,对过去的网络研究透才能解决这些问题。
第二,解决现有网络的异质异构问题。我们现有的网络很多,一种网络对应一种体系结构;新一代信息网络需要一体化,而且从机理上可以做到一体化。其实,所有的网络不是路由器就是交换机,只是公共数据转换机制不一样,完全可以在机理上设计一种网络来实现一体化。
第三,新一代网络应该负载多种业务。现在的网络也在一定程度上可以支持多种业务,但是人们不满意,有很多弊端,需要在新的网络下提供普适服务,也就是多种优良服务。新一代网络需要可移动性、可信性非常值得信赖。
可信网络与普适服务
在上面的背景下,张宏科教授提出了一个全新的网络体系模型。上层是普适服务层,下层是交换路由层,就通过两层网络模型,来构建下一代信息网络。这种网络体系结构实际上是一个全新的“标识分组网络”,通过标识进行管理,通过分组进行数据传输。
交 换路由层的研究目标是在一个可信(安全、可靠、可控、可管)的网络平台上提供多元化的网络和终端接入,保证信息交互的可信性和移动性,并有支持普适服务的 能力。传统IP地址具有语义重载性(IP地址同时表示主机的身份信息和位置信息),导致了一系列难以解决的问题,如IP地址欺骗、传输层无法支持移动性、 网络缺乏可控可管能力等。交换路由层采用的接入标识与交换路由标识分离映射方法解决了这一问题。
接 入标识与交换路由标识分离方法将网络划分为接入层和核心层。网络中有接入标识和交换路由标识两种标识,接入标识代表了终端的身份信息,只能在接入层使用; 而交换路由标识代表了终端的位置信息,只能在核心层使用。交换路由层采用间接通信模式:在接入层采用接入标识转发数据,而在核心层采用内部的交换路由标识 替代接入标识转发;接入层负责各种通信终端的接入,核心层进行控制管理和交换路由,用户的隐私性、网络的安全性、可控可管性和移动性在核心层和接入层中以 一种统一的基于标识的方式分别实现。
普适服务层负责各种业务的会话、控制和管理,这些业务包括由运营商或第三方增值服务商提供的各种网络业务,主要是语音、数据、流媒体等,不同的业务用相同的普适服务层承载。普适服务层主要解决两个问题:
1.网络服务与资源统一处理
资 源的获取和服务的接入是当前网络最主要的两种应用,但是在当前的互联网架构之下,资源和服务并没有统一的描述和处理机制。鉴于此,普适服务层通过引入“服 务标识”和“服务描述”的概念与设计,提出了一种基于本体的资源和服务的统一描述机制。具体实现采用了语义网和本体设计的技术,建立了统一的本体描述,其 中包括资源的分类和服务的分类,以及对服务和资源的关系进行描述的参数。
2.支持多连接多路径的高效传输协议设计
服 务连接的建立是各种网络服务完成必需的过程,高效的连接建立过程是网络设计的重要内容。普适服务层引入“连接标识”的设计,通过将“服务标识”映射到“连 接标识”实现服务连接的建立。这种映射的可能形式包括一对一简单映射、一对多多连接映射、多对一多流映射和多对多复杂映射。
从 总体趋势上看,下一代网络整个网的核心层功能结构将趋向扁平化的两层结构:核心网的发展趋势将更加倾向于传送层和业务层而独立发展,并分别优化;而在网络 边缘则倾向于多业务、多体系的融合,允许多协议业务接入,能以最经济的成本和灵活、可靠且持续支持一切已有和将有的业务。
中国工程院院士 刘韵洁
融合网络的问题如何解决,如何在一个物理网络的平台来提供多种业务?上世纪80年代通过ATM的方式没能解决网络融合的问题,上世纪90年代互联网也没 能解决这个问题。实践证明,有一个解决思路可行——就是通过设计独立的虚拟载入网,使每一种业务都有一个具体的网络,而且这些逻辑的网络相互独立、隔离。 这样,语音业务和ATM、帧中继网上的业务、视频业务、互联网业务、移动数据业务在一个物理平台上实现,并且符合电信标准,甚至超过原有网络的能力。
清华大学教授 吴建平
移动通信和家用电器等对IPv6的需求越来越迫切,很多IPv6家电甚至已经开始销售,下一代互联网基础研究正在得到重视。但有一个概念需要明确, IPv4和IPv6仅仅是互联网传输数据的格式定义,IPv6为解决互联网面临的技术挑战搭建了一个发展平台,但它绝不等于下一代互联网,它只是万里长征 的第一步。我国向下一代互联网发展的基本路线是:坚持演进,吸取创新。下一代互联网的发展应该是一个改良的过程,而不是革命。
北京交通大学电子信息工程学院 院长 张宏科
我们现在的团队正在从事新一代网络体系基础研究。正在研究的新网络是一个全新的网络,体系结构研究要优于IPv6。目前,IPv6 还不能彻底解决好网络安全性和移动性问题,而我们提出的新体系为新一代信息网络的发展指出了一个新的发展方向。尽管现在已经提出一些先进、超前的研究思 路,但究竟什么样的网络可以完全弥补现有网络的不足,这个问题还很难说清,要对过去研究很透,而且必须经过长时间考虑。
(责任编辑:花草)
|
2008-01-21 23:27
http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms706556%28VS.85%29.aspx
Native Wifi
Purpose
The Native Wifi automatic configuration component configures, connects to, and disconnects from wireless networks. Native Wifi can store profiles on the networks it interacts with in the form of XML documents.
Developer Audience
The Native Wifi API is designed for C/C++ developers. Programmers should be familiar with wireless networking concepts and terminology.
Run-Time Requirements
The Native Wifi component requires clients running Windows Vista or Wireless LAN API for Windows XP SP2.
最典型的是获取WLAN的SSID和无线信号强度,做WiFi的demonstration系统时非常有用。
http://bbs.driverdevelop.com/simple/index.php?t108028.html
Vista下可以通过Native wifi API获取,你看看MSDN相关API说明,eg:WlanGetAvailableNetworkList
XP 下如果打了MS的两个补丁WindowsXP-KB893357-v2-x86-CHS、WindowsXP-KB918997-v6-x86-CHS也 可以用Native wifi API获取,否则你只能写protocol驱动,去查询OID了。或者也可以通过WZC(零配置),不过WZC的接口不多,不好用。
以前MSR开发了一个VC6.0下获取信息的东东,ms我没有使用成功。
ps: 我查找了一下,一般应该是通过NDIS来提取,http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms799391.aspx
给出了详细的说明,注意OID_802_11_BSSID_LIST的介绍里,
- Rssi
- The received signal strength indication (RSSI), in dBm. Typical values range from −10 through −200 dBm.
这个就是场强值。 |
2008-01-20 14:26
前一阵子,WINLAB的老师来BH做WSN的讲座,提到了该实验室也在做Cognitive Radio Platform的Prototype.
http://www.winlab.rutgers.edu/pub/docs/focus/Cognitive-Hw.html
The network-centric cognitive radio architecture under consideration in this project is aimed at providing a high-performance platform for experimentation with various adaptive wireless network protocols ranging from simple etiquettes to more complex ad-hoc collaboration. Particular emphasis has been placed on high performance in a networked environment where each node may be required to carry out high throughput packet forwarding functions between multiple physical layers. Key design objectives for the cognitive radio platform include:
* multi-band operation, fast frequency scanning and agility;
* software-defined modem including waveforms such as DSSS/QPSK and OFDM operating at speeds up to 50Mbps;
* packet processor capable of ad-hoc packet routing with aggregate throughput ~100 Mbps;
* spectrum policy processor that implements etiquette protocols and algorithms for dynamic spectrum sharing.
The cognitive radio prototype’s architecture is based on four major elements: (1) MEMS-based tri-band agile RF front-end, (2) FPGA-based software defined radio (SDR); (3) FPGA-based packet processing engine; and (4) embedded CPU core for control and management. These components will be integrated into a single prototype board which leverages an SDR implementation from Lucent Bell Labs as the starting point.
当然最牛的还是以前听到的QZ提到的 Adapt4.Inc
不知道是不是入门门槛太高了,国内竟然没有仿制品! |
2008-01-18 13:31
| Wi-Fi Moves into the Sensor Networking Realm |
| M2M Research Service | Short-Range Wireless Research Service | Wireless Sensor Networking (WSN) in Industrial Automation |

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. - January 15, 2008 |
Contact: Nicole Fabris
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“Rarely is Wi-Fi invoked within the context of wireless sensor networking or industrial process control,” observes Sam Lucero, ABI Research senior analyst. “Wi-Fi is considered too power-intensive as many sensors, actuators, and other devices require battery operation while deployed for several years at a time – whereas Wi-Fi is optimized for limited time usage: from a few hours to less than a full day.”
But a new transition peeks over the horizon, put forth by a company called GainSpan.
A Wi-Fi chipset company, GainSpan has developed various techniques that provide the battery life needed by sensor networks for Wi-Fi.
ABI Research notes several benefits for such a capability. If companies have already deployed a Wi-Fi infrastructure, access points, etc., it will reduce or even eliminate the need to deploy additional backhaul sensor infrastructure.
“Wi-Fi is more widely used and understood as a technology than many sensor-networking technologies being developed,” continues Lucero. “GainSpan may in fact be able to offer a wider base of tools to develop applications. And overall system cost may be lower via a simpler topology.”
In many cases, Wi-Fi can transmit farther than sensor network technologies. Rather than employ a dense cluster of meshed nodes, which are inherently more complex to network and manage, Wi-Fi is a simpler start, reducing complexity of the network topology.
“GainSpan contends that it has created a highly integrated SoC (System on Chip) that reduces the amount of extra components and circuitry needed,” Lucero explains. “Total BOM (Bill of Materials) will fall noticeably as well.”
ABI Research believes this kind of Wi-Fi approach has a sweet spot that particular customers will find enticing; and those with Wi-Fi infrastructure already deployed (without expensive wired or alternate legacy control systems) will benefit the most.
In its recent report, Wireless Sensor Networking (WSN) in Industrial Automation, ABI Research discusses the market opportunity for WSN in industrial deployments, and the implications of key standards efforts including Wireless HART, SP-100.11a, and “industrial” ZigBee. The research explores WSN adoption trends, and details key players involved in making WSN a reality in industrial automation. It forms part of two ABI Research Services: M2M and Short-Range Wireless.
ABI Research is a leading market research firm focused on the impact of emerging technologies on global consumer and business markets. Utilizing a unique blend of market intelligence, primary research, and expert assessment from its worldwide team of industry analysts, ABI Research assists hundreds of clients each year with their strategic growth initiatives. For information, visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.
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2008-01-12 21:00
http://www.ece.vt.edu/thou/NSF_Workshop/agenda.html
美国NSF大牛们07年的Workshop,说的是物理层对无线网络研究的影响和重要性,以及研究前景。这算不算的上Wireless Network领域的八七会议了,呵呵。
读后感
可能的热点:
软件无线电(Cognitive Network):以前我在Blog里介绍过;
水下和地下的传感器网络:传输介质模型变化,需要新的协议支持;
跨层优化:这个现在我还是深有体会啊,比如说身边做路由的同学吧,很困难吧;
机会网络:比如车载网,多人游戏网络,病患监控,网络层将承担更多的任务(基于内容的路由,P2P,在网计算)。未来的无线网络的关注重点可能在:车载网,游戏网,感测网,无线通信网。车多,游戏玩家多,传感器便宜,手机到处是。
基于物理层感知的MAC和高层协议:
Examples (based on MIMO)
Topology control
A MIMO aware MAC protocol: SPACE-MAC
Multi-path Routing & MIMO
TCP & MIMO
这个我最看好,因为合作时看到做MIMO的合作方总能推出一堆堆眼花缭乱的公式和矩阵,好发文章。
Nitin Vaidya:这个教授果然牛人,说你们拼命搞钱干啥,好好的先让我们和下一代了解具体的物理层,然后少拿点项目多踏踏实实的做事吧( 我们这里有一个“每三年大概要跳一个新的方向”的人估计拿刀去了),多多的鼓励不同研究群体间真正的合作(我哭了,我就是被派出去给人干粗活杂活累活的,耽误了发文章),砍掉大部分网络烂会仿ToIT的模式(估计计算机系做wireless的同学要拿刀拼命去了),工业界的反馈(在中国只需要Zhengfu和部长的反馈就行!)。估计他不会来中国讲这些话,否则……虽然说得都是大实话。
DTN:延迟容忍网络
很奇怪,没有重点提到网络编码Network Coding,不过INFOCOM 2008一下文章井喷了。
如果今后毕业了还做无线网络研究的话,可以考虑上面的方向,呵呵,现在还是踏实做好研究方向的事情。记得以前有次例会,说起Vehicle network,被礼貌告知“我觉得直接用车载无线电就行了”,无语……沉默……,还是发文章先毕业吧同学。 |
2008-01-06 15:28
WNMap is a wireless network map display based on Google and Yahoo! Maps. Once installed network "nodes" can be added to the map's database and can be shown for web visitors. WNMap provides at-a-glance knowledge of the size of a wireless network project.
尝试了一下,下面几个从我这里可以看到。
这个开源代码库实际上为广域无线网络的展示提供了一个平台,如城域的WSN播撒,无线通讯的基站部署以及WiFi热点的部署等等展示。 |
2007-12-31 21:17
http://www.news.com/2102-1033_3-6223743.html?tag=st.util.print
By Jon Oltsik
http://www.news.com/Get-ready-for-a-rocking-08-in-networking-tech/2010-1033_3-6223743.html
Story last modified Mon Dec 31 04:00:03 PST 2007
During the holiday season, snow isn't the only thing we analysts shovel. With that in mind, here's my look forward on networking technology and related industry trends in 2008:
1. 802.11n
While several vendors including Aruba Networks, Cisco Systems, Meru Networks, and Trapeze Networks are already shipping products, this yet-to-be-ratified IEEE Wi-Fi standard will create a bigger buzz in 2008 than cheap New Year's Eve champagne. Why? 802.11n is the first wireless networking technology with the bandwidth and feature set to replace today's standard wired Ethernet. While most users will retain their wires for now, 802.11n equipment will still be sold in droves to replace existing legacy Wi-Fi equipment--especially at universities, hospitals, and manufacturing companies.
2. 802.1x
Yet another IEEE standard with a catchy name. Think of 802.1x as your laptop's name tag at the network party. No name tag, no access to the party. Deployment of 802.1x has always been an expensive kludge, so it has seen limited success. This will change in 2008 with more widespread implementation of Windows Vista and 802.1x in mobile devices. Look for this activity to be further driven by the OpenSEA Alliance's work that seeks to do for 802.1x what Firefox did for the browser.
3. Windows Server 2008
Look for Microsoft to really turn up the volume on Windows networking. Windows Server 2008 truly advances Microsoft offerings in network activities like DNS/DHCP, IPSec, and Network Access Protection. Expect to see Microsoft create a networking-centric "Windows light" version to compete with all of the Linux appliances sometime late in the year.
4. Identity-based networking
This has been around for a while, but now that Cisco has introduced its Trusted Security (TrustSec) Architecture, we are bound to see and hear lots more. Basically, TrustSec and its industry cousins marry identity, role, location, and policy together so IT can create user-based networking rules depending upon multiple parameters. Despite the neat sound bites, the biggest identity-based networking activity in 2008 will simply authenticate devices and check their health status. Hey, didn't we call this Network Access Control (NAC) just a few months ago?
5. Data center 10-gigabit Ethernet switching
The Ethernet crowd (i.e. Cisco, Extreme, Hewlett-Packard, etc.) will really push 10-Gigabit Ethernet switching for the data center, especially with the introduction of 10-Gigabit over copper early in the year. Driven by the server virtualization frenzy, large organizations will buy a load of these new switches next year, further driving down the price per port. This will have a ripple effect through the storage world. With all of this new 10-gigabit equipment, large organizations will finally eschew Fibre Channel in favor of IP-based storage.
6. Traffic management
Look at some recent networking trends: P2P, YouTube, service-oriented architecture, IP telephony, etc.--every one of these can potentially wreak havoc on network traffic at a moment's notice. This is only going to get worse as we add more video, IP storage, and dynamic IT virtualization to the traffic mix. Leading-edge companies understand that legacy network management technologies don't cut it anymore. Now it's time for the mass majority to follow by purchasing new tools that help them with traffic spikes, capacity planning, and application tuning. Good news for Arbor Networks, Mazu, and Xangati, which should see big deals and/or acquisitions.
7. Network infrastructure breakdown
As large organizations embrace the latest networking gadgets, their network services infrastructure will begin to fail. Think of the dull guts of the network like IP address management (IPAM), DNS/DHCP, and Radius that are often managed using spreadsheets, scripts, or ancient NT 3.5 servers. As noted earlier, Microsoft will make a lot of noise in this space, but expect specialists like Blue Cat, Identity Engines, and Infoblox to shine as well.
8. IPv6
We will see both push and pull in 2008. As of June 30, all federal government agency backbones must be ready to transmit both IPv4 and IPv6 traffic. This in turn means that every supplier to the government must also support IPv6. Vendors will want to get a return on this R&D expense and will therefore push IPv6 hard into the private sector. While this will produce limited results, the IPv6 buzz will really heat up toward the end of 2008 as mobile and "smart" device penetration leads to a new panic about IP address shortages. Look for widespread deployment at the twilight of the decade.
9. Fixed wireless convergence
FWC will enable your cell phone to switch among cellular, Wi-Fi, and WiMax networks without missing a beat. Very cool, but this technology creates an industry "battle royale" as it pits the equipment provider proponents who have everything to gain (i.e. sell new equipment) and the cellular providers who have everything to lose (i.e. lose valuable cellular voice plan revenue). By the end of 2008, progressive carriers will realize that fixed wireless convergence is inevitable and begin to change their business model accordingly. Until then, expect a lot of visionary hype and limited activity.
10. Open cellular networks
Sprint, T-Mobile, and Verizon claim that they will open their networks soon, look for AT&T to make a similar announcement early in 2008. No, Linus Torvalds isn't providing advice for Ivan Seidenberg, CEO of Verizon. All of these carriers simply need unbridled flexibility to respond to an avalanche of impending wireless communications and standards, WiMax, and new handheld platforms like Google Android. Look for the cellular carriers to begin abandoning retail outlets and outsource break/fix services in late 2008 or early 2009.
I'm sure that I missed a bunch of trends but there is always next year. Peace.
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