您正在查看 "默认分类" 分类下的文章 2012-04-10 19:35 In this issue of the newsletter, I want to sketch out a scenario in which rather than analyze policy announcements or make predictions, I try to lay out what are the various possible paths open to China. The scenario concerns trade. China’s current account surplus has declined sharply from its peak of roughly 10% of GDP in the 2007-2008 period to probably just under 4% of GDP last year. Over the next two years, the forecast is, |
2011-10-21 14:36 When international forces struck against Muammar
al-Qaddafi's military outside the rebel stronghold of Benghazi in March
-- the beginning of the end for the Libyan dictator who was killed on Oct. 20 in his hometown of Sirte -- they
were acting on a doctrine called "responsibility to protect,&q |
2011-08-15 17:35 We may live in a post-industrial age, in
which information technologies, biotech, and high-value services have
become drivers of economic growth. But countries ignore the health of
their manufacturing industries at their peril.
High-tech services demand specialized skills and create few jobs, so
their contribution to aggregate employment is bound to remain limited.
Manufacturing, on the other hand, can absorb large numbers of workers
with moderate skills, providing them wi |
2011-07-20 18:21 The blundering of the establishment's oracles,
particularly when it comes to making war, is common and well documented.
Prof. Bruce Kuklick, in his Blind Oracles: Intellectuals and War from Kennan to Kissinger,
offers persuasive arguments and a mountain of evidence to support this
thesis in the spheres of foreign policy and the waging of war. This
disturbing pattern is not limited to these spheres, however. Dr. Thomas
Sowell's book, The Vision of the Anointed, in |
2011-06-26 18:21 Economists and policy makers alike tend to assume that capital should
flow from rich, capital-abundant countries to poor, capital-scarce
ones.[1] It’s a belief so widespread that it has practically become a creed of international economics.
But this assumption is not only simplistic; it is also dangerous. It
can encourage developing countries to attract capital they do not need
or cannot absorb. It can also exacerbate in |
2011-06-15 18:18 The Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) stands at a defining moment. Its member states are
constantly being evaluated for their economic potential and desirability
as a market for investments, goods, and services. At the same time,
their effort to forge a community free from external intervention is
shaping a new regional order based on common security and shared
prosperity.
In geopolitical terms, ASEAN is well-placed to be an acceptable and
equal partner to ma |
2011-05-28 16:33
After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United
States, it was common to hear that ‘everything had changed.’ Now, as the
dust settles following the killing of Osama bin Laden, it seems a good time to take stock and see just how much is really different.
Yet when one does, it quickly becomes clear that while from the
United States’ standpoint, things have gotten worse, from China’s point
of view the attacks were a blessing in disguise.
W |
2011-05-20 18:35 Is China currently rebalancing? The currency has been appreciating,
the PBoC has hiked interest rates four times, and wages have been
surging. Because of all of this I am often asked if China has finally
begun the long-waited rebalancing process and whether we have yet seen
an improvement in the underlying economy caused by a rising consumption
share.
Those who were hoping the answer was yes will have been disappointed by the release Thursday of the World Bank’s |
2011-05-16 18:06 Over dinner in Algiers recently, we
asked each other whether the youth-led revolutions unfolding in northern
Africa presage the awakening of economic lions throughout the
continent. Could the changes unfolding in the Arab north usher in an
Africa-wide industrial revolution?
If so, it would mean shifting from production of commodities to
higher-value manufactured products. It would also mean looking
objectively at the concept and aims of international development
cooperati |
2011-05-04 18:14 Robert D. Kaplan: The Aftershocks of bin Laden
The effects of bin Laden's death on al Qaeda and the Middle East will be profound, but the most surprising could be in Washington.
In war, the issue of morale is critical. To break the enemy is to break his morale. The killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. Special Operations forces in a firefight north of the Pakistani capital of Islamabad delivered a pivotal boost to American morale and a blow to the morale of al Qaeda |
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