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2012-04-10 19:35

In this issue of the newsletter, I want to sketch out a scenario in which rather than analyze policy announcements or make predictions, I try to lay out what are the various possible paths open to China. The scenario concerns trade. China’s current account surplus has declined sharply from its peak of roughly 10% of GDP in the 2007-2008 period to probably just under 4% of GDP last year. Over the next two years, the forecast is,

 
2011-10-21 14:36

When international forces struck against Muammar al-Qaddafi's military outside the rebel stronghold of Benghazi in March -- the beginning of the end for the Libyan dictator who was killed on Oct. 20 in his hometown of Sirte -- they were acting on a doctrine called "responsibility to protect,&q

 
2011-08-15 17:35

We may live in a post-industrial age, in which information technologies, biotech, and high-value services have become drivers of economic growth. But countries ignore the health of their manufacturing industries at their peril.

High-tech services demand specialized skills and create few jobs, so their contribution to aggregate employment is bound to remain limited. Manufacturing, on the other hand, can absorb large numbers of workers with moderate skills, providing them wi

 
2011-07-20 18:21

The blundering of the establishment's oracles, particularly when it comes to making war, is common and well documented. Prof. Bruce Kuklick, in his Blind Oracles: Intellectuals and War from Kennan to Kissinger, offers persuasive arguments and a mountain of evidence to support this thesis in the spheres of foreign policy and the waging of war. This disturbing pattern is not limited to these spheres, however. Dr. Thomas Sowell's book, The Vision of the Anointed, in

 
2011-06-26 18:21

Economists and policy makers alike tend to assume that capital should flow from rich, capital-abundant countries to poor, capital-scarce ones.[1] It’s a belief so widespread that it has practically become a creed of international economics.

But this assumption is not only simplistic; it is also dangerous. It can encourage developing countries to attract capital they do not need or cannot absorb. It can also exacerbate in

 
2011-06-15 18:18

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stands at a defining moment. Its member states are constantly being evaluated for their economic potential and desirability as a market for investments, goods, and services. At the same time, their effort to forge a community free from external intervention is shaping a new regional order based on common security and shared prosperity.

In geopolitical terms, ASEAN is well-placed to be an acceptable and equal partner to ma

 
2011-05-28 16:33

After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, it was common to hear that ‘everything had changed.’ Now, as the dust settles following the killing of Osama bin Laden, it seems a good time to take stock and see just how much is really different.

Yet when one does, it quickly becomes clear that while from the United States’ standpoint, things have gotten worse, from China’s point of view the attacks were a blessing in disguise.

W

 
2011-05-20 18:35

Is China currently rebalancing?  The currency has been appreciating, the PBoC has hiked interest rates four times, and wages have been surging.  Because of all of this I am often asked if China has finally begun the long-waited rebalancing process and whether we have yet seen an improvement in the underlying economy caused by a rising consumption share.

Those who were hoping the answer was yes will have been disappointed by the release Thursday of the World Bank’s

 
2011-05-16 18:06

Over dinner in Algiers recently, we asked each other whether the youth-led revolutions unfolding in northern Africa presage the awakening of economic lions throughout the continent. Could the changes unfolding in the Arab north usher in an Africa-wide industrial revolution?

If so, it would mean shifting from production of commodities to higher-value manufactured products. It would also mean looking objectively at the concept and aims of international development cooperati

 
2011-05-04 18:14
Robert D. Kaplan: The Aftershocks of bin Laden

The effects of bin Laden's death on al Qaeda and the Middle East will be profound, but the most surprising could be in Washington.

In war, the issue of morale is critical. To break the enemy is to break his morale. The killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. Special Operations forces in a firefight north of the Pakistani capital of Islamabad delivered a pivotal boost to American morale and a blow to the morale of al Qaeda
 
   
 
 
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