A,B,C,D - 1,2,3,4交易系统by Dra at ForexFactory卧龙师兄译
这个系统会使用斐波那契回调和扩展线以及趋势线,在C点(或3点)处出现六种K线信号中的一种时,我们入场交易,我会贴一些关于这个系统的图片,以及一些我做的交易。
交易这个系统的时候,首先需要画出所有的趋势线用来确定当前的趋势。然后你会发现并且画出最近的A点和B点,使用斐波那契回调线连接AB两点,如果在趋势线上出现反弹的时候,很多情况下你会发现C点是AB波段的一个回调(38.2、61.8、78.6回调)。
当市场价格回调到位于趋势线的C处,我们寻找一个入场机会。在上升趋势中将止损放在C点的下方,在下跌走势中将止损放在C点的上方。止盈放在到达预测的D点之前的10-20点,或者使用止损/止盈1:1.5或者更好的比例。
如果市场价格在38.2或者61.8反弹,那么预测的目标(D点)可能在斐波那契扩展的161.8处;如果在78.6反弹,那么目标D点更可能在斐波那契扩展127处。
在出现如下的六种K线形态时入场:
上升走势:
1、看涨吞噬
2、双底
3、晨星
下跌走势:
1、看跌吞噬
2、双顶
3、暮星
见下图
The next chart is showing a downtrend. The white line was the uptrend, as you can see the market breaks the uptrend line test it then continue down. On this chart there was Convergence at C (fib. 78.6 from 3 - 4 and fib. 61.8 from A - B coincide at projected C - this was another confirmation to get in). So sell at C / Evening Star where price pulls back from the down TL (note thats also the back side of the up TL which is now resisteance).
See chart below.
The next charts posted will be Live trades.
下一张图显示了一个下跌走势。白线是上升趋势线,你可以看到,价格跌破上升趋势线之后回测之后继续下跌。在这张图上,在C点的位置有斐波那契回调的重合。所以在C处价格回测趋势线出现暮星的时候,我们入场做空。
见下图。
下面的几张图将是真实交易。
Heres a 4H chart for eurchf. I've been in a a trade on this pair from last week. Today the market retraces and creates another nice set-up which I would have entered on. The set up is the pullback from the TL at the blue fibs - 61.8 which forms an Engulfing Bearish Candle.
这是一张EURCHF的死小时图,我在上周的时候入场一次。今天市场价格回调给出另外一个完美的设置,我入场做空。这个设置指的是价格回调到趋势线和蓝色的斐波那契回调位时产生的看跌吞噬信号。
This is another trade on the audjpy. I miss this one. Nice setup, pull back from TL forms evening star on pink fibs. 38.2 and on white fibs at 61.8. Thats call C-Convergence. Where two fibs from a similar high or low coincides. Entry should be after decision candle that completes the evening star.
Remember we only Sell or Buy at C or 3, which has to be at a bounce off a TL and also at a fib retracement.
这是AUDJPY图上的一笔交易,我错过了这个入场信号,然而这个设置很好。价格回调到趋势线以及斐波那契回调位并形成暮星,并且在大波段的38.2%和小波段的61.8%回调位产生信号,这叫做回调共振,发生在两个回调位相差不大的时候。在暮星信号产生之后,就应该入场做空。
记得我们在C点或者3处入场,这个位置必须是趋势线以及斐波那契回调所在的位置。
I use a R/R 1:1.5 or greater. Once my trade reaches 10-15 pips within my set target I close 60% of the trade, move SL to break even, setting profit higher, leaving the other 40% to run. I also use trailing stops at times. I use fib extensions or 100 as support to project my profits. I use a max SL of 50pips + spread. SL varies, base on setup. If the projected target is less than a 1:1.5 I dont trade.
我使用1:1.5或者更好的风险利润比。一旦我的单子达到我预定目标的10-15点之内,我平掉60%的仓位,移动止损到入场价位处,并将利润目标设置得更高一些,使得另外的40%的仓位利润奔跑。有时我也会使用跟踪止损。我使用斐波那契扩延伸或者100作为支撑阻力来预测利润目标。我使用固定的50点加上点差的止损。给予设置,止损的设置并不相同。但是当获利目标无法满足1:1.5的风险利润比时,我不会交易。
On the cadjpy 1H the down TL has been broken, creating a small uptrend, also that new up TL has also been broken, whats happening now is that the back side of the down TL now becomes support. Similar for the 4H. On the 4H it retraces, forms that Engulfing bullish candle, but I wouldnt take this trade seen that the uptrend line was broken. I wouldnt go long until it makes a higher high from that III bounce.
Chances are a Kings Crown(head & shoulders) will form on the 1H.
Patience is KEY with this system.
See charts attached.
在CADJPY的一小时图上,下跌趋势线被打破,产生了一个小的上涨走势,随后新产生的上升趋势线也被大伯,现在的情况是下跌趋势线变成了支撑。四小时图上的情况相同,在四小时图上,价格回调并产生看涨吞噬,但是我不会做这笔交易因为上升趋势线已经被跌破。在价格在III处反弹形成了另外一个较高的高点之后我会寻找机会入场做多。操作这个系统必须有耐心。
NB: The back side of a down TL often times becomes support, likewise the back side of a up TL often becomes resistance.
下跌趋势线被突破之后经常会变成支撑,就像上升趋势线被突破后经常会变成阻力一样。
Thats one of the pairs i'm watching. I'm looking for a pullback from the TL(reversal candle formation). Its now at a 78.6 and a 38.2. There was a valid entry on the 1H(engulfing bearish candle at the TL). Also the 1H is showing consolidation so maybe its best to be on the sideline.
See chart attached.
这是我正在观察的货币对,我会寻找价格回调倒去实现的情况,现在价格正处于78.6%和38.2回调。现在出现了一个正确的设置,并且小时图上出现价格盘整的情况,也许这是最好的入场时机。
Quote:
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Originally Posted by goldrushrush 
How can you determine that is the right point?
I saw two of your chart, you decide the "A" or "1" started from the middle H/L of the bigger swing.
I'm just curious...
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First you have to know the correct way to draw TLs, that is connect higher lows for uptrend and connect lower highs for downtrend.
Look at the chart below. First thing we saw is that the market breaks the up TL, it then retrace test the up TL forms engulfing bearish candle at Fib. 61.8(C)(this would confirm a possible short entry).
首先你必须知道如何正确的画趋势线,正确的画法是在上升走势中连接逐渐升高的低点,在下跌走势中连接逐渐下跌的低点。看一下下面那张图,首先我们看到市场价格突破上升趋势线,然后它回调到上升趋势线并在61.8%回调处形成了看跌吞噬,这就确认了一个入场信号。
The market then breaks support at B and creates a lower low. This is where you would now draw the down TL from A-C(only draw tls after the market makes higher high or lower low)
随后,市场价格打破了B处的支撑,并且形成了一个较低的低点,这时你应该连接AC两点,画一条下跌趋势线(只在市场形成较高的高点或者较低的低点时画新的趋势线)。
It then retrace from D, continues up to the TL (3), forms another engulfing bearish candle, this was also at fib 61.8, so this is now your perfect entry (remember only sell or buy @ C or 3 on one of six candle formations mentioned earlier) Hope this helps.
See chart below.
当市场价格在D处反弹,攀升至下跌趋势线附近的3处,形成另外一个看跌吞噬,并且这个看跌吞噬位于61.8%回调位,这就是一个完美的交易信号。(记得只在C点或者3处形成六种K线形态的时候入场),我希望这些能对大家有所帮助。