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2009-11-08 13:38
    在MBO的最终目的———股权套现的问题上,丽珠管理层做得极其高明。      MBO遭遇中国之经典   引子   以失败者的名义,在他人战斗硝烟的掩护下携带胜利果实悄然离开是非之地———丽珠的故事给了我们一个理解现阶段国内MBO实质的独特视角。而在投资逐利的意义上,丽珠“失败”的管理层收购比国内其他企业的案例更贴近于华尔街意义上的MBO   丽珠的MBO已经苦心孤诣多年。丽珠员工在丽珠成立之初的1992年就组建了社团法人————“珠海市桂花职工互助会”。但国家的政策一直没有松动,直到2001年年初,原第一大股东光大集团决定退出丽珠之时,丽珠管理层才开始了实质性的行动。当时,该会委托浙江省国际信托投资公司收购光大集团所持的全部12·72%丽珠股权,该次收购后来因为财政部以不合国家相关规定为由没有批准而流产。   此后,该会转而成立了“珠海市丽士投资有限公司”来继续进行低价收购丽珠法人股的操作。在不到一年的时间里迅速将除第一大股东持有之外的全部丽珠法人股(占丽珠总股本的9·29%)悉数收入手中,并在后来联合太太药业对付东盛的收购威胁过程中,又将上述股份以近100%的溢价全部出售给了财大气粗的太太药业。高管层因此获利数千万元。   难关   现在来反思丽珠的MBO经过,会发现在整个过程中存在着以下四个左右着局势发展的关键问题,它们分别是:   第一难关:选择哪些法人股东作为收购对象?   第二难关:收购的时机如何把握?   第三难关:如何融资?   第四难关:如何套现?   闯关   第一关:收购对象   丽珠管理层为什么想实施MBO呢?要解答收购对象的问题,必须先从寻找这个问题的答案入手。   丽珠集团1993年在深圳交易所上市以后,成为国内第一家同时发行A股和B股的医药企业。经过多年的创业,公司从一家总资产只有几百万元的小公司发展成为了今天16亿总资产的规模。“这是一个奇迹。”丽珠集团的一个高级管理人员曾如此向记者感慨说。“当初的发起人股东都从丽珠赚够了钱,而辛苦经营丽珠多年的管理层却没有享受到企业发展的应有回报。”一位熟悉丽珠内情的著名企业家如此评价说。可以看到,真正促使管理层萌生MBO想法的,正是为自己找回被淹没在历史变革中的管理者价值。   什么东西可以补偿“备受委屈”的丽珠管理层呢?最直接的答案或许会是丽珠集团的控制权。在当前国内曲解的MBO涵义的视角下,这个答案显得如此天经地义。但问题的关键是,多年以来,丽珠的管理层事实上不是已经控制了丽珠集团了吗?控制权对他们还有什么意义呢?因此,答案肯定不仅是公司控制权。   那么他们想要的究竟是什么呢?从后来其一系列的运作策略来看,真正的答案就是他们想要获得丽珠控制权变现的收益,而收购一定的股份正是为了获得一个控制权的物化体,借助这个物化体可以将无形的管理层控制权进行高价的“套现”,这也是后来法人股出售高溢价的产生根源。   更直接地说就是,管理层把获得利益补偿的突破口选在了公司流通股与非流通股的价差上,通过低价获取非流通股使得自己的控制权得以物化,而自己下一位的接手者在支付高溢价之后依然能在价差区间中获得另一部分的超额利润,从而实现自己与接受者的“双赢”。数据显示,丽士投资在购买法人股时,价格都在每股2元出头(低于每股净资产),而套现给太太药业的价格却是每股4元多,而丽珠集团的B股价格一直在每股6元以上,A股价格更是一直在每股10元左右。   这样看来,丽珠管理层确定的收购对象无疑就是丽珠非流通的法人股。就这一点而言,丽珠管理层把握住了MBO的精髓,但可惜的是,它错过了最佳的时机,因而错过了最大限度的利益。   第二关:收购时机   收购时机的选择实际上包括两个方面的问题:一是为了避开政策的规制,是否已经提前做好了收购主体的注册工作?二是原法人股股东是否愿意转让手中股票。在丽珠的案例中,管理层选择了光大集团即将退出丽珠的时刻作为行动时机无疑是正确的。   2001年年初,“珠海桂花职工互助会”委托浙江省国际信托投资公司收购光大集团所持的全部12·72%丽珠股权。此时的丽珠管理层和第一大股东之间的关系是非常融洽的,从光大集团同意以3·16元的价格转让全部股份给管理层的事实就可以看出这一点。有了第一大股东的支持,按理说实现MBO应该是水到渠成的,可谁料到正是这种信心导致了这次转让的失败————由于社团法人不能受让上市公司股权,因此股权转让协议没有得到财政部批复。   究其原因,还在于发起收购前没有做好充分的规避政策限制的准备工作。因为光大集团持有的是国有法人股,其转让必须得到财政部的批复,所以受让这部分股票就必须更加静心地准备。专家评价说,丽珠管理层应该及早注册一家实施MBO的壳公司,并且为了规避《公司法》对有限责任公司对外投资额不能超过净资产50%的限制,最好是直接注册成立一家股份有限公司来进行MBO的操作。   因为急于退出的光大集团在外来收购者提供的价格面前动了心,所以在财政部漫长的审批过程中,老谋深算的光大集团已经在暗中开始与其他收购者接触了,并且后来事态的发展是管理层与光大集团反目,即便管理层在股权转让失败后迅速注册成立了实施MBO的壳公司————丽士投资,但光大集团已经不会再将股份转让给它了,管理层因而错过了直接受让第一大股东股份的绝好时机。   如果丽珠管理层能顺利将光大持有的股份拿到手中,又同时低价收入其他的丽珠法人股,那么管理层将成为丽珠绝对的控制者,只要在两三年内静心加以整顿和包装,就可能以远高于现在的价格整体出手。从这一点而言,丽珠管理层没有能够实现MBO的最大可能利益,这个损失被光大集团,特别是后来入主的太太药业给捡走了,朱保国无疑是这次事件中最大的赢家。   从这次挫折的产生原因来看,当时的丽珠管理层还缺少专业的收购顾问的指导。或许是吃一堑长一智的缘故,此后的MBO操作却显得凶狠而稳健,与前期比起来,可以看出这些运作的背后显然有高人在引路。丽士投资成立后,马上展开了大举吞并剩余法人股的行动。短短几个月中,就将光大集团以外的全部法人股9·29%全部收入手中,除了出手迅捷之外,可圈可点之处还不少。一是依靠自身广泛的人脉,使得受让价格在2元出头,甚至低于每股净资产;而且在受让手法上,为了避免冗长的谈判和审批,甚至使用上了依靠法院裁决来进行收购的非常规办法。   值得注意的是,整个收购过程的目标都锁定在非流通的法人股的受让上,另外对收购的法人股的规模也扩大到了极致。前者最大限度地压低了收购的成本,后者使得管理层的控制权得以物化,从而使得其后的高价套现成为可能。   第三关:如何融资   依据我国法律,商业银行和证券公司的贷款一般都不能用于股权投资。法律的限制使得我国不存在一个公开的MBO融资市场。丽珠管理层是怎么解决钱的问题的呢?像其他实施MBO的国内公司管理层一样,仅仅依靠丽珠管理层的薪金积累是无法全部支付股权收购所需的大量资金的,而其顺利实施操作的资金来源却一直没有披露出来。从其他企业的经验看,丽珠管理层依靠自身信用融资的可能行也比较大,但融资的对象不大可能是银行。   而在第一次寻求受让光大集团股份的事件中,所需资金将超过亿元,如此大规模的资金需求看来凭管理层的个人信用也是无法满足的了。此时我们注意到,一个可能的融资主体出现了,它就是浙江国投。作为一家信托公司,它的行动范围似乎比银行等其他机构要大得多,而且身手也极其敏捷。那么在丽珠管理层与浙江国投的信托协议中,浙江国投究竟是以债权人还是战略投资者的身份来参与操作呢?因为计划已经失败,所以外界也无从得知其协议的真实内容了。无论如何,浙江国投都具有为这次股份转让提供资金支持的很大可能。   由此可见,在融资的环节上,丽珠的MBO与大多数的国内MBO案例一样是在黑暗中操作完成的。不过可以肯定的是,虽然没有公开的大规模并购融资市场,但可用于MBO操作的市场资金并不因此而显得稀缺。   第四关:如何套现   在某种程度上,股权就如同新鲜的水果一样,买来以后如果不能及时地售出,就会很快地变质损坏,最后变得不值一钱。   在本案例中,丽珠管理层在错失受让第一大股东股份的良机后,所收购的法人股很可能因为缺乏售出机会而无法实现控制权物化和获得相应的高额收益。就在光大集团与外来收购者的转让谈判进行得如火如荼的时候,丽珠管理层猛然出手了!   太太药业此时以“白衣骑士”的身份进入了人们的视野。它对收购竞争的参与迅速改变了丽珠管理层的颓势,在不到一个星期的时间里,不仅使得丽珠管理层手中的法人股以高价获得转让,而且因为股权结构的变化挫败了光大集团利用在股东大会上进行新董事会选举从而实现控制的图谋,也迫使资金并不宽裕的东盛东拼西凑地仓促应战。   而在收购竞争的硝烟中,丽珠管理层却悄悄地退到了幕后坐收渔利。可以这样设想,如果管理层不赶在光大集团更换董事会之前引入救援的“白衣骑士”,那么在光大实现丽珠控制之后,外来的收购者将进入丽珠,管理层手中并未物化控制权的法人股将迅速贬值。很多人认为丽珠管理层出卖了自己,但事实上,这个精明的团队是以无辜者的身份已经赚得盆满钵满了。   因此,在MBO的最终目的———股权套现的问题上,丽珠的管理层做得极其高明。在这个视角下,丽珠的MBO在中国概念的意义上失败了,却在MBO原初的华尔街意义上取得了很大的成功。   启示   丽珠的MBO究竟是成功了还是失败了?问题答案的不确定性正是这一案例的魅力所在。产生这一矛盾现象的根源就在于如何理解MBO目的的问题。从获取公司控制权的角度上说,丽珠的管理层无疑没有成功,但正如文初的疑问一样:丽珠管理层多年以来已经大权在握,如果MBO的目的仅仅是获得控制权,那么这个控制权似乎显得很不值得。事实上,MBO的最终目的还是在于通过收购获得投资收益,而获取公司控制权只是获得收益的一个环节而不是最终的目的。   既然如此,那么如何在MBO之后顺利实现套现就是这类投资问题的一个非常核心的环节。从套现的角度说,丽珠管理层为我们完整理解MBO提供了一个鲜见的成功案例。当然,丽珠管理层由于没能及时引进专业的收购顾问,设计出合乎国情的收购方案而遭受了初期的失败,错失了最大的获益可能,这也为国内其他想实施MBO的企业提出了警示———在我国现阶段实施MBO的首要问题还在于如何规避政策限制。   另外在套现的时机把握和手法上,丽珠的案例也能给予我们诸多的启发,套现的时机往往是隐藏的,可以挖掘和创造的,而并非是守株待兔就可以等得到。 (南方都市报)
 
2009-06-28 01:14
下面是新浪的杰克逊事件报道。之前网络以快著称,现在不仅快,而且有歌听,有视频看。报纸还能做啥呢? 全球歌迷悼念迈克尔-杰克逊 专题 [验尸报告断定非他杀 求救录音披露 美众院默哀 滚动] [杰克逊物品被拍卖 葬礼前瞻 个唱退票 数字盘点杰克逊] [经典造型][中国 国际媒体封面报道][评论集 策划:歌王离世] [杰克逊曾改变世界步伐 不再有让人战栗传奇 一生传奇而悲情] [专辑颤栗销量世界第一 试听][悼念 博友哀悼 高清1 2 图集] [120段视频 Black or White、you are not alone、Bad] [歌曲集 Beat It、Thriller、Heal the World、Scream] [Dangerous、We are the world、Billie jean 、Ben]
 
2009-06-28 00:35
朋友们,向右看
 
2008-08-16 13:25

摘自《风险投资和私人权益资本案例》之Adams——一家有鲜明投资理念及策略的工程师VC。

1、市场第一:整体上先决定以哪些市场为投资目标,然后再考虑对这些市场上的特定公司进行投资;

2、在缺乏“市场第一”战略的情况下,风险投资更倾向于在“街头传闻”的基础上进行投资,而不是根据商业基本要素和市场分析进行投资;

3、市场审查是一笔交易中你可以独立进行的唯一的一种审慎审查;

4、非连续性:某个时间或者情形打破了特定行业内的平衡并创造出新的进入机会。非连续性是现存大型市场上发生的剧烈和永久性的结构变动,而现存的市场主体因为经济因素或者受到陈旧的基础设施的阻碍不能对这种变化趋势做出及时的反应;

5、结构化航线:基于所聚焦市场中企业的共同特征,形成系统化的投资管理方法,效率最大,风险最小。

 
2008-08-07 00:04

[乌拉圭]何塞·恩里克·罗多   

        坚硬的荒原,一望无际,灰茫茫的,朴实得连一条皱纹都没有;凄清,空旷,荒凉,寒冷;笼罩在铅似的穹隆下。荒原上站着一位高大的老人;瘦骨嶙峋,古铜色的脸,没有胡须。高大的老人站在那里,宛似一株光秃秃的树木。他的双眼像那荒原和天空一样冷峻;鼻似刀裁,斧头般坚硬;肌肉像那荒凉的土地一样粗犷;双唇不比宝剑的锋刃更厚。老人身旁站着三个僵硬、消瘦、穷苦的孩子;三个可怜的孩子瑟瑟发抖,老人无动于衷,目空一切。犹如那坚硬荒原的品格。老人手里有一把细小的种子,另一只手,伸着食指,戳着空气,宛似戳着青铜著成的东西。此时此刻,他抓着一个孩子松弛的脖子,把手里的种子给他看,并用下冰雹似的声音对他说:“跑坑,把它种上。”然后将他那战栗的身体放下。那孩子扑通一声,像一袋装满卵石的不大不小的口袋落在落在坚硬的荒原上。

  “爹,”孩子抽泣着,“到处都是光秃秃的,硬邦邦的,我怎么刨呢?”

  “用牙啃。”又是下冰雹似的声音。他抬起一只脚,放在那孩子软弱无力的脖子上。可怜的孩子,牙齿咔咔作响,啃着岩石的表面,宛似在石头上磨刀。如此过了许久,许久,那孩子终于在岩石上开出了一个骷髅大小的坑穴。然后又啃阿,啃阿,带着微弱的呻吟。可怜的孩子在老人脚下啃着,老人冷若冰霜,纹丝不动,像那坚硬的荒原一样。

         当坑穴达到需要的深度,老人抬起了脚。谁若是亲临其境,会越发心痛,因为那孩子,依然是孩子,却已是满头白发。老人用脚把他踢到一边,接着提起第二个孩子,这孩子已颤抖着目睹了前面的全部经过

  “给种子攒土。”老人对他说。

  “爹,”孩子缺生生地问道,“哪里有土阿?”“风里有,把风里的土攒起来。”老人回答,并用拇指与食指将孩子可怜的下巴掰开,孩子迎着风,用舌头和喉咙将风中飘扬的尘土收拢起来,然后,再将那微不足道的粉末吐出。又过了许久,许久,老人冷若冰霜,纹丝不动地站在荒原上。

  当坑穴填满了土,老人撒下种子,将第二个孩子丢在一旁。这孩子向被榨干了果汁的空壳,痛苦使他头发变白。老人对此不屑一顾,然后又提起最后一个孩子,指着埋好的种子对他说:“浇水。”孩子难过得缩成一团,似乎在问他;“爹,哪里有水阿?”“哭,你眼镜里有。”老人回答,说着扭转他那两只无力的小手,孩子眼中顿时刷刷落泪,干渴的尘土吸取着,就这样哭了许久,许久。

  泪水汇成一条哀怨的细流抚摸着土坑的四周。种子从地表探出了头,然后抽出嫩牙,长出几片叶片,在孩子哭泣的同时,小树增加着枝叶,又经过了许久,许久,知道那棵树主干挺拔,树冠繁茂,枝叶和花朵益着芳香,比那冷若冰霜、纹丝不动的老人更高大,孤零零地屹立在坚硬的荒原上。

  风吹得树叶沙沙作响,天上的鸟儿都来到树枝上筑巢,它的花儿已经结出果实。老人放开了孩子,他已经停止哭泣,满头白发。三个孩子向树上的果实伸出贪婪的手臂,但是那又瘦又高的老人抓住了他们的脖子,像抓住幼崽一样,取出一粒种子,把他们待到附近的另一块岩石旁,抬起一只脚,将第一个孩子的牙齿按在地上。那孩子在老人的脚下,牙齿咔咔作响,重新啃着岩石的表面。老人冷若冰霜,纹丝不动,默不作声,站立在坚硬的荒原上。

  那荒原是我们的生命,那冷酷无情的硬汉是我们的意志,那三个瑟瑟发抖的孩子是我们的内脏,我们的技能,我们的力量。我们的意志从他们的弱小无力中汲取了无穷的力量,去征服世界和冲破神秘的黑暗。

  一把尘土,被转瞬而逝的风吹起,当风停息时,又重新散落在地上。软弱,短暂,幼小的生灵蕴藏着特殊的,无拘无束的力量。这力量胜过大海的怒涛,山岳的引力和星球的运转。一把尘土可以居高临下,俯视万物神秘的要素并对他们说:“如果你作为自由的力量存在并自觉的行动,你便像我一样,是一种意志,我与你同组,我是你的同类。然而如果你是盲目的,听天由命的力量,如果世界只是一支无限的空间往返的奴隶的巡游队,如果它屈从于一种连自身也毫无意识的黑暗,那我就比你强得多,请把我给你的名字还给我,因为在天地万物之中,惟我为大。  

 
2008-08-06 09:02

这个理论最有意思的地方在于从逻辑上论证了后来者也会有饭吃的道理,因为领先者如比尔盖茨的英文也很流利,但他宁愿去运营微软公司而不是去教英文。当然,比较优势的硬币另一面就是后来者必须先去干傻大笨粗的事情,积攒实力以赢得完成转变升级的时间。

在我从事的这个创业融资顾问行当里,比较优势同样适用。虽然这类的顾问公司都只有三五年时间,不过这一时间必须加上其合伙人在其他投资银行的从业经历,这样一来,行业排名第一的机构就相当于有了十年以上的先发优势。既然如此,从零起步的后来者的比较优势无疑就剩下劳动力了。由此后来者可行的策略就是盯住二流三流的项目,实行人海战。

假设世界是一个金字塔,那么在每一个高度上都会有外围和中心的差别,外围虽然卖力一点,但其好处却是空间比中心要广阔得多,竞争也并不那么激烈,只要把有效工作时间延长为先行者的一定倍数,赶超就是可能的了。

 
2008-07-27 12:17

'You've got to find what you love'

Thank you. I'm honored to be with you today for your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. Truth be told, I never graduated from college and this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation.

Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories. The first story is about connecting the dots.

I dropped out of Reed College after the first six months but then stayed around as a drop-in for another eighteen months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out? It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife, except that when I popped out, they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking, "We've got an unexpected baby boy. Do you want him?" They said, "Of course." My biological mother found out later that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would go to college.

This was the start in my life. And seventeen years later, I did go to college, but I naïvely chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life, and no idea of how college was going to help me figure it out, and here I was, spending all the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back, it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out, I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me and begin dropping in on the ones that looked far more interesting.

It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms. I returned Coke bottles for the five-cent deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the seven miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example.

Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer was beautifully hand-calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and sans-serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.

None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me, and we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts, and since Windows just copied the Mac, it's likely that no personal computer would have them.

If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on that calligraphy class and personals computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do.

Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college, but it was very, very clear looking backwards 10 years later. Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward. You can only connect them looking backwards, so you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something--your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever--because believing that the dots will connect down the road will give you the confidence to follow your heart, even when it leads you off the well-worn path, and that will make all the difference.

My second story is about love and loss. I was lucky. I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents' garage when I was twenty. We worked hard and in ten years, Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4,000 employees. We'd just released our finest creation, the Macintosh, a year earlier, and I'd just turned thirty, and then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew, we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so, things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge, and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our board of directors sided with him, and so at thirty, I was out, and very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating. I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down, that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure and I even thought about running away from the Valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me. I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I'd been rejected but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.

I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods in my life. During the next five years I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the world's first computer-animated feature film, "Toy Story," and is now the most successful animation studio in the world.

In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT and I returned to Apple and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance, and Lorene and I have a wonderful family together.

I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful-tasting medicine but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life's going to hit you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love, and that is as true for work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work, and the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking, and don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it, and like any great relationship it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking. Don't settle.

My third story is about death. When I was 17 I read a quote that went something like "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself, "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "no" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something. Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important thing I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life, because almost everything--all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure--these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

About a year ago, I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctors' code for "prepare to die." It means to try and tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next ten years to tell them, in just a few months. It means to make sure that everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.

I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope, the doctor started crying, because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and, thankfully, I am fine now.

This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope it's the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept. No one wants to die, even people who want to go to Heaven don't want to die to get there, and yet, death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because death is very likely the single best invention of life. It's life's change agent; it clears out the old to make way for the new. right now, the new is you. But someday, not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it's quite true. Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma, which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice, heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalogue, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stuart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late Sixties, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and Polaroid cameras. it was sort of like Google in paperback form thirty-five years before Google came along. I was idealistic, overflowing with neat tools and great notions. Stuart and his team put out several issues of the The Whole Earth Catalogue, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-Seventies and I was your age.

On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath were the words, "Stay hungry, stay foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. "Stay hungry, stay foolish." And I have always wished that for myself, and now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.

Stay hungry, stay foolish.

 
2008-07-26 12:46

今天在报纸上看到柳传志说喜欢看赤壁,看赤壁是冲着心目中的大英雄去的。这想法竟然跟我一致,真让我有点不好意思。

顺便引用一点周六上午读报看到名言:

“不要动他”——邓小平在关于傻子瓜子调研报告上的批示。

“东方亮了,西方才亮”——张瑞敏跟柳传志谈多元化。

“不长本事的事情不做”——柳传志解释为什么不去海南投资房地产。

“选人要看前脸,也要看后脑勺”——柳传志谈用人,强调企业利益第一是首要标准

 
2008-07-12 10:05

上周末回广州参加最后两门硕士课程的考试,北京大雨,凌晨两点多飞机才降落。顺利完成考试,本周上交了期末论文,学习全部结束了,硕士论文还有待时日。在广州参加了Alan小孩回广州的宴席。

北京今年夏天尤其潮湿。年长的出租司机说二三十年前的北京就是这样的。

部门有个同事要离职了,在我到北京的四个月时间里,我们两人作为本部门唯一两个在京人员,几乎每天在现代城下的木桶三国吃午饭。

昨天去一个同届校友加老乡的办公室参观。亮马河旁边两层小别墅,楼下是一个空阔的草地,很好很强大。

晚上去看赤壁,刚上映的第一周末,万达电影城人满为患,未果。后转去三里屯酒吧与投资界的校友打牌,几起几落,临晨才回家。

 
2008-06-24 18:51

最使人受到鼓舞的,是在灾区的人们如何相互扶持和帮助,以及全中国的人们都踊跃捐款并投入到救灾当中。这表示出中国人民显示出了很强的公民精神。有一些专家持有这样的观点:中国人不可能表现出整体的协同,因此需要一个强力的全能的政府来管理他们。正在发生的这些事情似乎能够提供一些反证。媒体的全面彻底介入,为这种公民精神的繁荣提供了渠道。

在过去3年中,贪婪与空虚充斥在中国社会,它引致了股市泡沫,当股市崩溃时,很多人希望政府能够施以援手,但是,当数十万人受伤、几百万人无家可归需要帮助的时候,怎么能够将有限的金钱来拯救那些赌徒?北京奥运会是中国的光荣时刻,于是很多人将过多的精力放在了那些表面虚荣的方面。仅仅是为了炫耀,财政资金就被大量用于建造成本巨大的大厦和其他建筑物。在尚有如此众多的孩子还无法拿出学费的时候,中国应该将数十亿的资金投入到那些地标建筑中吗?奥林匹克是一次充满友爱的竞赛,作为主办国的人民表现出真诚和欢迎、比赛场馆和器具足够,就可以完成一场伟大的活动。为了表示对地震中死亡的人们的悼念,中国应该将尽量少的精力放在庆典仪式上,而将这些钱用来灾后重建。

一个民族,她的人民在相互同情,或者一致憎恨某个外人的时候才最能够体现出自己的民族性,而只有前者才能使这个国家实现真正的荣耀。中国人已经经受了考验,这一次同情胜出(环球企业家 专栏)

 
2008-06-24 18:44

(环球企业家记者 陈伟)5月初,一支由20个中国人组成的小队伍来到美国西部小镇奥马哈,由于距离他们计划参与的盛会已近,他们无法在奥马哈订到酒店,只能住在距离奥马哈一个多小时车程的林肯城附近的小镇上。

2007年的股东大会由巴菲特和股东们打乒乓球开始,而今年则是桥牌,一项巴菲特热衷的运动。一如既往,属于全球最富有的人之列的巴菲特衣着简单的出现在股东当中,没有保镖、没有刻意保持距离,潜移默化中伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东们被归属感连在了一起,他们不单单为了金钱,而是分享一个伟大公司的荣誉。

而看似随意的股东问答环节,并没于拘泥于某项投资的财务和技术细节,却始终贯穿着巴菲特人生智慧的释放。一个9岁的孩子问满头白发的巴菲特,对于自己今后的职业发展有什么建议时,巴菲特说:第一,做自己喜欢的事,才能够充分发挥,生活也才有乐趣;第二,必须要游刃有余。后者成了何伯权此行印象最深的一点,“这个跟他的规避风险,谨慎投资都是有关的,就是他做什么事情都留有足够的余地。”何伯权对本刊记者这样总结他的体会,“(因此,)他的状态很放松,没有压力,虽然是管理这么大的资金,每天依然是跳着踢踏舞去上班……我想(他)是不会累的。”

从事投资十几年,被一些媒体称为“中国巴菲特”的赵炳贤对本刊记者说,如果让他现在写一本关于巴菲特投资理念的书,那么这本书可能只有简单的几个字:

第一章——第一条:保本、第二条:重视第一条

第二章——市场上99.9%的公司应该被屏蔽,不加研究

第三章——我和芒格(巴菲特最亲密的投资搭档)从不讨论股价

这看似简单到极点,实际上,无论是赵炳贤还是从未涉足投资领域的薛伟成,都承认自己从巴菲特那里借鉴到的价值投资理论同市场主流观点并无差异:研究值得投资的公司、适时出手、长期持有。但如何能够找到这样的公司、什么时间是合适的出手时间,对这些投资的原理的理解才能检验是否是巴菲特真正的信徒。

在赵炳贤看来,巴菲特收购的那些行业内最具长期投资价值的企业很多都是家族企业。收购中,巴菲特利用了这些家族企业领导者的荣誉感。

这些企业尽管需求稳定、业绩优异,却面临着难以培养家族接班人的尴尬,第二代往往希望摆脱工厂主的形象,从事诸如华尔街等更“高尚”的职业。

如果没有了家族接班人,这些企业第一代领导者就不再愿意在晚年将自己所有的希望和资产全部押在工厂上,他们乐意将工厂大部分股权转让给巴菲特,即使后者的出价比其他购买者要低。部分原因是巴菲特虽然对这些企业往往进行绝对控股,但却不要求经营权,降低了来自被收购方的阻力。

没有哪本投资教科书里教授这样的投资智慧,但正是这些财务和投资工具之外的东西造就了巴菲特战胜市场的奇迹。

而有所取舍,他的中国信徒们也在借鉴巴菲特的投资理念修正自己的投资行为。

“我觉得投资理念上应该是相合,但是具体操作不可能一样。”何伯权说。七年之后,何伯权已经用更客观的立场回首昔日和达能的分分合合,承认达能当时是非常遵守商业规则的合作伙伴。客观立场和平和的心态或许是何伯权能够接受巴菲特的价值投资理念,并成为巴菲特的拥趸中践行其投资理念较多的中国投资者的原因。

个人经历可能是何伯权对巴菲特投资理念具有天然亲和力的另一原因。和巴菲特只投资自己熟悉和了解的行业,最成功的投资是可口可乐这样普罗大众熟悉的消费品,却很长时间以不了解、不熟悉为理由,谦虚地回避高科技行业一样,何伯权投资的七天连锁酒店、久久丫、九钻网、办公用品连锁超市……都是直接面对消费者的企业,“这可能跟我以前的出身有关”,作为乐百氏矿泉水的创始人,何伯权认为没有其他任何一个产品的消费者比水更广泛,而销售这种缺乏差异化的产品,需要掌握消费者的每一点心理变化。“我现在判断项目的第一步,就是看这个项目对于消费者有没有价值。”将自己对消费行业和消费者心理把握方面的优势在选择投资项目时充分发挥,何伯权的投资中就包含了巴菲特价值投资的先决条件。

何伯权同样学会了从“自己居住的街道”发现投资机会,久久丫鸭脖连锁的创始人顾青是原乐百氏武汉区总经理、九钻网CEO陈斌是原乐百氏华北区总经理。何伯权认为看重管理层素质是自己巴菲特的共同点,同时他也用自己对于昔日同袍的了解和信任,诠释了“投资从身边做起”的巴菲特理念。

但无论是何伯权、赵炳贤,还是计划在不久之后投身投资领域的薛伟成、煕可中国CEO朱演铭都不得不承认:目前中国尚不具备实行巴菲特的投资逻辑的条件。

“中国市场现在变化太快,也就缺乏稳定。”何伯权说。一个明显的例证是:即便巴菲特本人,也无法像长期持有可口可乐、富国银行一样持有中石油的股票。

中国股市历史短暂,因此产生更多的是短期趋利的投资者。“一个短时期之内从1000点上升到6000点,然后又迅速跌回3000点的股票市场,怎么可能实行巴菲特的价值投资逻辑?”独立经济学家谢国忠如此评价。虽仍然有人愿意花费620100美元只为和巴菲特共进午餐,但从中能够得到的最大收获也许只是一张和巴菲特的合影。

事实上,如今中国股市“价值投资理论”的极力吹捧者不少不久前还是技术分析的拥护者,对价值投资理论突如其来的热情就像对待一支被短期炒作的股票。当他们将价值投资当作股市的万灵药时,被视做价值投资大师和典范的巴菲特本人却保持谦虚,承认自己犯下了各种错误。巴菲特每次股东大会必须要做的事情之一,就是检讨自己在一年中又有哪些失误和错过了哪些机会。

在何伯权这些巴菲特的中国信徒们眼里,巴菲特甚至不仅仅是一个 “投资者”,而更加像一个成功的企业家。巴菲特洞悉人性及其必然结果,这是其投资理念的真正支撑。他的中国信徒们或许只有暂时忘记巴菲特那炫目的投资业绩,而将学习的重点放在巴菲特投资行为背后那些对人性的体察,才能逐渐找到和这位投资大师靠拢的途径。  

 
2008-06-15 10:06

昨天回学校参加同学小聚,一个律师,一个哲学博士,一个物理博士,一个教育部官员,当然还有一个投资顾问和一个记者。

饭后我们在咖啡厅又谈了很久。感受着不同知识背景的冲撞。

多元化很好很强大。

 
2008-05-28 14:18

中移动扼杀了太多的市场创新了,是不折不扣的人民公敌。游戏产业在自由互联网中不断演变成了一个巨大产业,无线领域却是一片萧条。中移动之恶绝非垄断这么简单。它是政冶权力与革命性新技术结合生下的怪物。让TD成为它的掘墓人吧。

大胆预计一下,中移动未来首先失去的将是大批的长尾用户,同时将面临双号双机用户的收入分流,最后动摇其整个用户的根基,最终成为一家边缘运营商。

 
2008-05-26 19:09
时机(Timing)是评判一个投资项目时的重要指标,也是生活中很多事情出问题的原因所在。世界的本原是时空共同组成的,空间容易看见,时间却极易被忽略,由于很多空间是由时间来创造的,"以时间换空间就是这道理。忽略了时间也就相当于看低了空间。给出时间,不放弃寻找空间的可能性就是很合理的选择。
 
2008-05-24 21:44
才出机杨大门,湿气就扑面而来,雷雨天,并不炎热,我又要在这里住三天,直到论文开题结束。续:早上起来,全身都粘乎乎的,略感乏力,真正的夏天已经先到了广州。昨天乘车经过我房子所在的小区,一种强烈的异乡人感觉油然而生,虽然我在这里生活过近七年,目前却已是过客。广州如比,才居住两月有余的北京又何尝不是异乡呢?或许,广州就是我记忆中的最后一个家乡了,从此之后,彻底进入无中心、无户口、自我搭载任意漂移的状态。续2,即将登机,来机埸的车上,广播通知说有快速登机服务,只需25。如果东西很多,或者对机场很不熟悉,这个服务可帮了大忙。再次感慨广州的好处。这样的社会才是全民共享的平等社会,而在北京,只有少数特权者能安享生活,多数人一不小心就会被无处不在层出不穷的麻烦所干扰中。北京会有怎样的一个未来?
 
     
 
 
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